kay john radical uncertainty decision making for an unknowable future
Kay John Radical Uncertainty. Decision-making for an unknowable future
When uncertainty is all around us, and the facts are not clear, how can we make good decisions? We do not know what the future will hold, particularly in the midst of a crisis, but we must make decisions anyway. We regularly crave certainties which cannot exist and invent knowledge we cannot have, forgetting that humans are successful because we have adapted to an environment that we understand only imperfectly. Throughout history we have developed a variety of ways of coping with the radical uncertainty that defines our lives. This incisive and eye-opening book draws on biography, history, mathematics, economics and philosophy to highlight the most successful - and most short-sighted - methods of dealing with an unknowable future. Ultimately, the authors argue, the prevalent method of our age falls short, giving us a false understanding of our power to make predictions, leading to many of the problems we experience today. Tightly argued, provocative and written with wit and flair, Radical Uncertainty is at once an exploration of the limits of numbers and a celebration of human instinct and wisdom.
2344 Руб.Mason Paul Clear Bright Future. A Radical Defence of the Human Being
A passionate defence of humanity and a work of radical optimism from the international bestselling author of Postcapitalism How do we preserve what makes us human in an age of uncertainty? Are we now just consumers shaped by market forces? A sequence of DNA? A collection of base instincts? Or will we soon be supplanted by algorithms and A.I. anyway? In Clear Bright Future, Paul Mason calls for a radical, impassioned defence of the human being, our universal rights and freedoms and our power to change the world around us. Ranging from economics to Big Data, from neuroscience to the culture wars, he draws from his on-the-ground reporting from mass protests in Istanbul to riots in Washington, as well as his own childhood in an English mining community, to show how the notion of humanity has become eroded as never before. In this book Paul Mason argues that we are still capable - through language, innovation and co-operation - of shaping our future. He offers a vision of humans as more than puppets, customers or cogs in a machine. This work of radical optimism asks: Do you want to be controlled? Or do you want something better?
1487 Руб.Kay John The Truth about Markets. Why Some Nations are Rich But Most Remain Poor
Capitalism faltered at the end of the 1990s as corporations were rocked by fraud, the stock-market bubble burst and the American business model - unfettered self-interest, privatization and low tax - faced a storm of protest. But what are the alternatives to the mantras of market fundamentalism? Leading economist John Kay unravels the truth about markets, from Wall Street to Switzerland, from Russia to Mumbai, examining why some nations are rich and some poor, why 'one-size-fits-all' globalization hurts developing countries and why markets can work - but only in a humane social and cultural context. His answers offer a radical new blueprint for the future.
4755 Руб.Priestley Theo, Williams Bronwyn The Future Starts Now. Expert Insights into the Future of Business, Technology and Society
Featuring contributions from an international array of futurists, The Future Starts Now provides fascinating insights and guidance into how society and business will transform in the years to come. The future is an uncertain, uncomfortable prospect for employees, employers and society at large. A flurry of unprecedented events have proven that, despite what some politicians and economists may tell us, the future is not set in stone. Instead, it is constantly being shaped and redefined by the everyday decisions of individuals and organizations. In light of this uncertainty, The Future Starts Now looks toward the various innovations and technologies that may shape our future. Authors Theo Priestley and Bronwyn Williams have brought together the world's leading futurists to articulate and clarify the current trajectories in technology, economics, politics and business. This is a comprehensive history of tomorrow, exploring groundbreaking topics such as AI, privacy, education and the future of work. While the guidance, insight and predictions are fascinating for anyone curious about what the future may hold, the book also functions as an invaluable guide for business professionals looking to steer their career or their organization with foresight and confidence.
5027 Руб.Gigerenzer Gerd How to Stay Smart in a Smart World. Why Human Intelligence Still Beats Algorithms
An essential guide to navigating our data-driven world, from the renowned psychologist and author of Risk Savvy Is more data always a good thing? Do algorithms really make better decisions than humans? Can we stay in control in an increasingly automated world? Drawing on decades of research into decision-making under uncertainty, Gerd Gigerenzer makes a compelling case for the enduring importance of human discernment in an automated world that we are told can - and will - replace our efforts. From dating apps and self-driving cars to facial recognition and the justice system, the increasing presence of AI has been widely championed - but there are limitations and risks too. Humans are the greatest source of uncertainty in these situations and Gigerenzer shows how, when people are involved, trust in complex algorithms can lead to illusions of certainty that become a recipe for disaster. We need, now more than ever, to arm ourselves with knowledge about how to make better decisions in a digital age Filled with practical examples and cutting-edge research, How to Stay Smart in a Smart World examines the growing role of AI at all levels of daily life with refreshing clarity. This book is a liferaft in a sea of information and an urgent invitation to actively shape the world in which we want to live.
4846 Руб.Haldeman Joe The Forever War
Private William Mandella is a reluctant hero in an interstellar war against an unknowable and unconquerable alien enemy. But his greatest test will be when he returns home. Relativity means that for every few months' tour of duty centuries have passed on Earth, isolating the combatants ever more from the world for whose future they are fighting. The Earth he knew is dead. The one he returns to . . . unrecognisable. Winner of the Nebula, Locus and Hugo awards, The Forever War was the first title selected for the SF Masterworks series when it launched in 1999. Inspired by Haldeman's experience in the Vietnam War, it has been seen as a critical work of anti-war SF.
1974 Руб.Dalio Ray Principles. Life and Work
Ray Dalio, one of the world’s most successful investors and entrepreneurs, shares the unconventional principles that he’s developed, refined, and used over the past forty years to create unique results in both life and business—and which any person or organization can adopt to help achieve their goals. In 1975, Ray Dalio founded an investment firm, Bridgewater Associates, out of his two-bedroom apartment in New York City. Forty years later, Bridgewater has made more money for its clients than any other hedge fund in history and grown into the fifth most important private company in the United States, according to Fortune magazine. Dalio himself has been named to Time magazine’s list of the 100 most influential people in the world. Along the way, Dalio discovered a set of unique principles that have led to Bridgewater’s exceptionally effective culture, which he describes as “an idea meritocracy that strives to achieve meaningful work and meaningful relationships through radical transparency.” It is these principles, and not anything special about Dalio—who grew up an ordinary kid in a middle-class Long Island neighborhood—that he believes are the reason behind his success. In Principles, Dalio shares what he’s learned over the course of his remarkable career. He argues that life, management, economics, and investing can all be systemized into rules and understood like machines. The book’s hundreds of practical lessons, which are built around his cornerstones of “radical truth” and “radical transparency,” include Dalio laying out the most effective ways for individuals and organizations to make decisions, approach challenges, and build strong teams. He also describes the innovative tools the firm uses to bring an idea meritocracy to life, such as creating “baseball cards” for all employees that distill their strengths and weaknesses, and employing computerized decision-making systems to make believability-weighted decisions. While the book brims with novel ideas for organizations and institutions, Principles also offers a clear, straightforward approach to decision-making that Dalio believes anyone can apply, no matter what they’re seeking to achieve. Here, from a man who has been called both “the Steve Jobs of investing” and “the philosopher king of the financial universe” (CIO magazine), is a rare opportunity to gain proven advice unlike anything you’ll find in the conventional business press.
6317 Руб.Cheesewright T. Future-Proof Your Business
It has never been more important for business leaders to look to the future. Yet, when we are living through some of the most uncertain times we have ever faced, it can feel daunting to know where to start. In Future-Proof Your Business, applied futurist Tom Cheesewright will reveal industry techniques and tools to help you: - Scan the near horizon for incoming shocks - Look to the far future to define long-term strategy - Accelerate decision-making in your business - Delegate power to the front line, speeding your response - Streamline your organisation so it’s agile and can adapt to change In our uncertain times, leaders who keep their focus on the future will be the ones who prevail.
767 Руб.Cheesewright T. Future-Proof Your Business
It has never been more important for business leaders to look to the future. Yet, when we are living through some of the most uncertain times we have ever faced, it can feel daunting to know where to start. In Future-Proof Your Business, applied futurist Tom Cheesewright will reveal industry techniques and tools to help you: - Scan the near horizon for incoming shocks - Look to the far future to define long-term strategy - Accelerate decision-making in your business - Delegate power to the front line, speeding your response - Streamline your organisation so it’s agile and can adapt to change In our uncertain times, leaders who keep their focus on the future will be the ones who prevail.
767 Руб.Duke A. Thinking In Bets
Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesnt yield the best outcome every time. Theres always an element of luck that you cant control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, its difficult to say Im not sure in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions dont always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions dont always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you dont, youll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. Youll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.
1518 Руб.Duke A. Thinking In Bets
Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesnt yield the best outcome every time. Theres always an element of luck that you cant control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, its difficult to say Im not sure in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions dont always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions dont always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you dont, youll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. Youll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.
1518 Руб.Begaidarova Rosa Khassanovna, Dyussembayeva Ainash Ermukhanovna Differential diagnosis and diagnostic algorithm of infectious diseases in children: The Practical Gu
This practical guide presents algorithms of diagnosis and differential diagnosis of the most common infectious diseases in children. The algorithmic approach of this handbookhelpsto assess the clinical situation and the material presented in the form of diagrams allows exploring the key issues easier, finding answers to questions quickly and making an effective clinical decision. The book will be useful for both medical students and practitioners.
908 Руб.Howard Annabel This is Caravaggio
Mercurial, saturnine, scandalous and unpredictable, Caravaggio - as a man, as a character and as an artist - holds dramatic appeal. He spent a large part of his life on the run, leaving a trail of illuminated chaos wherever he passed, most of it recorded in criminal justice records. When he did settle for long enough to paint, he produced works of staggering creativity and technical innovation. He was famous throughout Italy for his fulminating temper, but also for his radical and sensitive humanisation of biblical stories, and in particular his decision to include the brutal and dirty life of the street in his paintings. Caravaggio was a rebel and a violent man, but he eyed the world with deep empathy, realism and an unrelenting honesty.
1015 Руб.Smith Eve Off-Target
An unthinkable decision A deadly mistake In an all-too-possible near future, when genetic engineering has become the norm for humans, not just crops, parents are prepared to take incalculable risks to ensure that their babies are perfect … altering genes that may cause illness, and more… Susan has been trying for a baby for years, and when an impulsive one-night stand makes her dream come true, she’ll do anything to keep her daughter and ensure her husband doesn’t find out … including the unthinkable. She believes her secret is safe. For now. But as governments embark on a perilous genetic arms race and children around the globe start experiencing a host of distressing symptoms – even taking their own lives – something truly horrendous is unleashed. Because those children have only one thing in common, and people are starting to ask questions… Bestselling author of The Waiting Rooms, Eve Smith returns with an authentic, startlingly thought-provoking, disturbing blockbuster of a thriller that provides a chilling glimpse of a future that’s just one modification away…
1775 Руб.Ministry of Design Interior Design
Covering a diverse range of typologies, this book provides a detailed analysis of different interior design projects, guiding the reader through the development of each design. Complete with before and after plans and laden with glossy photographs to illustrate the end result, this book forms an important go-to guide for students of interior design. Each project includes an informative discussion and also an analysis of the functional areas of the interior space, and the decision-making process behind how the placement of furniture and establishment of walking flow was made. With insights from world-famous interior designers, this book forms a valuable reference and source guide for any students of interior design.
5990 Руб.ClearBlue \/ Pregnancy test, Rapid detection in 1 minute, Accurate 99%, 1 test
Discover ClearBlue \/ Pregnancy test, Rapid detection in 1 minute, Accurate 99%, 1 test - the perfect solution for fast and accurate results. With rapid detection in just 1 minute, ClearBlue ensures that you get the answers you need without unnecessary waiting. With 99% accuracy, this test provides peace of mind when you need it most. Each package includes 1 test, making it a convenient and economical choice for women seeking clarity. Say goodbye to uncertainty and hello to the ClearBlue Pregnancy Test, a brand you can trust for reliable results. Whether you're planning for the future or just want to know, a ClearBlue Pregnancy Test offers the confidence and accuracy you deserve. Take control of your health with ClearBlue - because every moment counts.
0 Руб.Ray Dalio, one of the world’s most successful investors and entrepreneurs, shares the unconventional principles that he’s developed, refined, and used over the past forty years to create unique results in both life and business—and which any person or organization can adopt to help achieve their goals. In 1975, Ray Dalio founded an investment firm, Bridgewater Associates, out of his two-bedroom apartment in New York City. Forty years later, Bridgewater has made more money for its clients than any other hedge fund in history and grown into the fifth most important private company in the United States, according to Fortune magazine. Dalio himself has been named to Time magazine’s list of the 100 most influential people in the world. Along the way, Dalio discovered a set of unique principles that have led to Bridgewater’s exceptionally effective culture, which he describes as “an idea meritocracy that strives to achieve meaningful work and meaningful relationships through radical transparency.” It is these principles, and not anything special about Dalio—who grew up an ordinary kid in a middle-class Long Island neighborhood—that he believes are the reason behind his success. In Principles, Dalio shares what he’s learned over the course of his remarkable career. He argues that life, management, economics, and investing can all be systemized into rules and understood like machines. The book’s hundreds of practical lessons, which are built around his cornerstones of “radical truth” and “radical transparency,” include Dalio laying out the most effective ways for individuals and organizations to make decisions, approach challenges, and build strong teams. He also describes the innovative tools the firm uses to bring an idea meritocracy to life, such as creating “baseball cards” for all employees that distill their strengths and weaknesses, and employing computerized decision-making systems to make believability-weighted decisions. While the book brims with novel ideas for organizations and institutions, Principles also offers a clear, straightforward approach to decision-making that Dalio believes anyone can apply, no matter what they’re seeking to achieve. Here, from a man who has been called both “the Steve Jobs of investing” and “the philosopher king of the financial universe” (CIO magazine), is a rare opportunity to gain proven advice unlike anything you’ll find in the conventional business press.
